Dominos - Wait & See

Edition #325

Good morning! ☀️

Right now we’re playing a bit of a waiting game. Derek Carr was always going to be the first domino to fall and there’s a good chance we'll see a trade occur in the next 4-5 days.

Multiple reports suggest that Carr's trade compensation could be as low as a third-round pick. It’s not often you get a chance to trade for a 31-year-old QB who was on his way to his 5th straight 4000+ passing yards season in a row without including a first-round pick.

The simple fact is that the Las Vegas Raiders have absolutely no leverage. They’ll need to take whatever they can get, but even if they agree to the Saints’ trade offer, it doesn’t mean this race is finished.

We don’t know if the Jets are even in this race, but they sure as hell should be.

🎬 Jets receiver Garrett Wilson has been doing the rounds, pitching his candidacy for offensive rookie of the year. Inevitably he’s been asked about Rodgers and he’s been gushing in his praise: "When you get someone like Aaron Rodgers, you immediately become a contender. Knowing what we had last year and what we put on film, we know we're close. If we get someone like him, I immediately expect to be there." I will say I’ve never experienced such a public push for a player that isn’t even a free agent by players of another team. In many ways, it’s absolutely crazy.

🧐 Rich Cimini had a really interesting nugget on Zach Wilson and the draft yesterday: “Some talent evaluators within the organization didn't see Wilson as worthy of being the No. 2 pick, according to two sources familiar with the pre-draft process," Cimini wrote. They saw him as a developmental player who could be a starter within three years. Assistant GM Rex Hogan and then-offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur were the driving forces behind the decision to pick him second, they said."

"[LaFleur], along with Rex Hogan, were in 2021 draft meetings selling the narrative that there was a legit argument Wilson was better than [No. 1 overall pick] Trevor Lawrence," one source said. "[Some of us], we're like, 'What the f---?!' It's one thing to like a player; it's another to pump a prospect up higher than he actually is." It’s almost reassuring to see that even NFL personnel get swept along in the hype.

🐏 Talking of Mike LaFleur, he was speaking to the media yesterday after being unveiled as the new Rams OC: "Things happened fast right after the season," LaFleur, who parted ways with the Jets in early January, said Tuesday during his Rams introductory news conference. "Got to connect with (head coach) Sean (McVay), and it was a pretty simple decision. You're going into an organization that has won, knows how to win, wants to win, has the right system and process and culture in place to win. And to be able to do it with great people. Not just Sean, but the rest of the staff. I have a history with, not all of them, but quite a few of them. Whether it just be a friendship or actually working with them. Guys like (defensive coordinator) Raheem (Morris). Just this whole building. There's a lot of great people."

💼 According to Aaron Wilson, the Houston Texans have interviewed New York Jets safeties coach Marquand Manuel to be the DC on DeMeco Ryans’ coaching staff.

Yesterday I woke up to the news that the Raiders had granted Derek Carr permission to talk to the New Orleans Saints. I quickly edited the newsletter and set about investigating whether that was game over for the Jets and Carr, as so many online seemed to be suggesting.

In reality, this really hasn’t altered things too much.

According to multiple reports here are some things that we also need to be aware of:

• A Trade is not imminent according to Ian Rapoport and many others.

• Derek Carr as of today has not waived his no-trade clause for New Orleans.

• New Orleans reportedly wants Carr to restructure his contract.

• If they are adamant about him restructuring, it makes no logical sense for him to agree to the trade.

Sometimes it’s easy to move on too soon. I’m still looking at Carr as a very realistic option for the Jets. The fact that New Orleans has agreed on the framework of a deal with Las Vegas is notable, but it doesn’t mean much in the grand scheme of things. Of course, he could choose to just get it over with and sign with New Orleans by agreeing to a trade this week, but that would be a pretty bad business decision if he’s being asked to restructure his current deal.

Here is the breakdown of the current Derek Carr contract:

Here is the breakdown of the current New Orleans Saints salary cap situation: