Defensive Line - Dollars Needed

Edition #285

Good morning!

We’ve actually had a light dusting of snow on the east coast of England overnight, and if you know anything about how the British handle wintery conditions, you’ll know that the country is about to grind to a halt, just in time for Christmas!

The Knicks have won 5 games in a row (somehow) and the Rangers are going for their 5th win in a row tonight, both of those facts make me a happy bunny this morning. Now if the Jets could go on a winning streak, that really would be something.

First of all here, are some playoff permutations for the Jets courtesy of the New York Times. We’ve got a chance if we finish 9-8, but I think we should just go 11-6 to make sure.

Zach Wilson has been named the #2 quarterback going forward, which relegates Joe Flacco to the 3rd string. It’s absolutely the right move, if Zach has been improving in practice then he needs to be rewarded, and we saw last week how limited Joe is at this point in his career. Make no mistake, this is Mike White’s team, but having Zach back him up is the logical decision going forward as long as the coaches have seen an improvement in the mechanics and fundamentals, which apparently they have.

Corey Davis (Concussion), Brandin Echols (Quad), JFM (Illness) Will Parks (Personal) and Quinnen Williams (Calf) all missed practice yesterday. Echols has already been ruled out and Quinnen is 50-50 still, but hopefully, all the others will be good to go on Sunday.

Duane Brown (Shoulder), Micheal Clemons (Knee), George Fant (Knee) and Mike White (Ribs) were all limited, but there doesn’t seem to be a huge amount of danger in any of those guys missing the game this Sunday.

The Jets announced they’d signed offensive lineman Eric Smith to the practice squad yesterday. An undrafted free agent out of Virginia in 2017, Smith has bounced around the practice squad circuit in the NFL and has had multiple stops with the Jets over the years. He’s only taken 58 snaps on offense over the last 5 and a half seasons.

A host of Jets players, including Mike White, Carl Lawson, and Quincy Williams helped 25 students from Brooklyn Community Services' Jets Academy during a holiday shopping spree at Dick's Sporting Goods. Jets tackle George Fant, defensive lineman Solomon Thomas, Jets Legend Leger Douzable and the Jets Foundation funded gift cards for all of the students at the after-school program.

I really can’t wait for Sunday’s game, December football with playoff consequences is a beautiful thing, something we haven’t seen for a while but something you can instantly embrace like a long-lost relative.

Part of my brain wants me to live in the moment and just enjoy the fact we’re playing meaningful games in December, but the other part can’t help looking into the future. Maybe it’s because it’s been programmed to be in off-season mode by Halloween, or perhaps it’s because I want to imagine this being a regular feature of my Christmas every year, but my mind keeps wandering to next year.

Nothing is given in football. That’s a lesson I learned very early. Just because we have a good defense this year, doesn’t mean it’s going to be as good next year. Which in turn got me thinking about the players making an impact this year. Obviously, the likes of Sauce and DJ are coming back next year but there are a lot of questions about the rest of the defensive roster.

Today I just wanted to focus on the defensive line. A unit that has been one of the most dominant in the NFL through the first 13 games.

Whenever I’m thinking about a position group, the first thing I do is take a look at their status for the 2023 season.

Defensive End

Micheal Clemons DE - Signed through 2025 (2023 cap hit of $1,061,024)
Vinny Curry DE - Free Agent
John Franklin-Myers DE - Signed through 2025 (2023 cap hit of $12,400,000)
Jermaine Johnson II DE - Signed through 2025 (2023 cap hit of $2,974,419)
Carl Lawson DE - Signed through 2023 (2023 cap hit of $15,333,334)
Bryce Huff DE - Restricted Free Agent
Bradlee Anae DE - Free Agent

Let’s just quickly tick off the three that will definitely return in 2023 considering their contracts and performance. John Franklin-Myers has 6 sacks (PFF) or 4 sacks (PFR) depending on who you use, and his 36 pressures are tied for the lead on the team. His cap hit will likely put him around the 15th-20th best-paid defensive ends in football once new contracts are handed out and 2023 represents the last year of guaranteed salary which means the Jets could theoretically cut him after next year. JFM will be motivated to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Jermaine Johnson and Micheal Clemons will both be back for their 2nd years and depending on what happens across the board, they’ll both be in line for an increase in playing time. I do wonder if Clemons will get more work inside over the off-season and find more playing time at defensive tackle next year, when you see the tackles below you’ll understand why.

Vinny Curry has done OK this year, but he’ll be entering his age-35 season next year and he’s dealt with a few injuries over the last couple of years. The Jets like a good veteran presence so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them ink someone like Curry or another veteran to a one-year deal. Anae is a low-cost option that they haven’t had to use this year and if they like him, they’ll bring him back on another low cost one year deal.

Now we come to the two most interesting players on this list. Carl Lawson and Bryce Huff, two of our most productive players so far this season. Lawson has 6 sacks and 36 pressures so far this season, his career year for Sacks was his first year with the Bengals when he recorded 8.5, and there’s a chance he’ll match or exceed that number this year. Considering 2022 is his first year after a bad Achilles injury, that’s extremely impressive.

The issue for Lawson is he’s being paid around top 10 money, believe the AAV of his contract puts him 12th among defensive ends. In terms of pressures generated he ranks 32nd in the NFL this year, and his 6 sacks put him 33rd. His missed tackle rate of 27.8% also puts him in the lower third in the NFL and makes him a bit of a liability against the run. His pass-rush win rate puts him 31st in the league and his PRP (A formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer) puts him 56th in the league. Basically, his production doesn’t match his contract.

Fortunately for the Jets, Joe Douglas structured Lawson’s contract in a way that offers the Jets an out if they want to take it, as you can see from the table below:

I don’t think there’s much chance that Lawson returns in 2023 at a cap hit of $15+ million. There is a world where that gets restructured and extended, but with the Jets up against the cap this is the first contract I expect to be addressed. Don’t get me wrong, I really like Lawson and think he’s a fine player. He may not be fully recovered from his injury and he’s a popular guy in the locker room. If you can keep him at a cost that makes sense then by all means do that. But you have a Carl Lawson type player who needs to get paid.

This brings us nicely to Bryce Huff. When I call him a Lawson-type player I don’t necessarily mean their style matches, but Huff is another pass-rush specialist who struggles in the run game, the difference is Bryce Huff was getting paid $900k this year for his contributions. The good news for the Jets is that Huff is a restricted free agent which gives them the right to match any offer (which I imagine they will) and they will place a tender on him likely to be a 2nd or 1st round pick. For a UDFA that’s quite unusual, but Huff isn’t your standard UDFA.

So far this year Huff has generated 4 sacks and 27 pressures in just 137 pass-rushing snaps. His 26.4% pass rush win rate puts him as the #1 defensive end in football and his PRP puts him 2nd in the league. If you compare his numbers to Lawson (346 pass rush snaps) and JFM (303 pass rush snaps) you start to see how effective he is. If Lawson doesn’t want to restructure his contract then the Jets have ready-made replacements in Huff and Jermaine Johnson. They may elect to just go that way anyway considering they’ll be able to save a significant amount on the cap and redistribute that money to other areas of the team, such as…

Defensive Tackle

Sheldon Rankins DT - Free Agent
Nathan Shepherd DT - Free Agent
Solomon Thomas DT - Free Agent
Quinnen Williams DT - Signed through 2023 (2023 cap hit of $9,594,000)
Tanzel Smart DT - Free Agent

You can see straight off the bat that the Jets have some considerable work to do in terms of their defensive tackle position next season, mainly because we only have one signed to the roster at the moment. That’s partly why I asked the question about Micheal Clemons potentially getting some work in inside during the Spring, his path at defensive end is a little blocked at the minute but his power could be used inside.

Anyway, let’s have a look at a few guys. Just a reminder that Jonathan Marshall was poached off the Jets practice squad earlier this week by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Let’s just start with the big one and that’s Quinnen Williams, who is currently having a career year and adding several $$$’s to his future contract. Williams has gone from being a good player, to a great player, to one of the most dominant players in the league at any position. Williams now has 11 sacks, 12 tackles for a loss and 45 total QB pressures, and we still have four games to play.

Those 11 sacks put him 2nd in the league at defensive tackle and the pressures put him at 5th, and don’t forget in all of this the fact the Jets rotate their defensive lineman. The fact that Quinnen has the same number of sacks (1 more if you use PFF) than Chris Jones in 140 fewer pass-rush snaps, is pretty remarkable. If that wasn’t enough, PFF rank him as the #1 rated run defender in football among defensive tackles. In short, signing Williams to a big long-term contract is priority #1 this off-season.

During the off-season, I read numerous reports about Quinnen looking for a contract that paid him around $18 million annually, but I think that number has risen and I’d be shocked if it wasn’t over $20 million annually. In my mind it’ll be somewhere between the $21 million that DeForest Buckner is making as the 2nd highest AAV for a DT and the ridiculous $31.6 million AAV that Aaron Donald is making. If it settled around $22-$23 million annually with the way contracts are going, I think that would make sense. The way Joe Douglas structures it is going to be key, as I imagine it’ll include a hefty signing bonus to maintain some cap flexibility.

Outside of Quinnen, I can imagine Smart coming back on a one-year deal again as he flashed some potential in the preseason. Solomon Thomas is a great player to have in the locker room but he hasn’t played a ton this year and depending on cost there may be a cheaper alternative out there who can offer the same kind of production, someone like Smart maybe. Shepherd has actually had a very good season and his pass-rush win-rate of 15.6% is only 0.2% lower than Quinnen Williams, 13 pressures and 2 sacks from 157 pass-rush snaps by an interior defender is very good. I’d like to see the Jets try and bring him back depending on price.

The big one is Sheldon Rankins who’s had a good bounceback year after a disappointing start with the Jets last year. Rankins cap hit was $6.1 million this year, but if they can get that number closer to $4 million then it makes some sense to see him return. His 17 pressures and 4 sacks are good numbers and his ability against the run has improved significantly this year in comparison to 2021. How much of that is his own improvement and how much is based on teams having to double Quinnen is up for debate.

I do think that defensive tackle could be an area we address in the draft. Unfortunately, we’ll be drafting too low for Georgia’s Jalen Carter, although the thought of Carter and Quinnen playing together almost makes me want to sell off all our draft assets to make it happen…almost.

Outside of Carter, there is so much talent at defensive tackle this year, it’s one of the more stacked positions in the 2023 draft. Bryan Bresee from Clemson, Siaki Ika from Baylor, Jaquelin Roy from LSU, Gervon Dexter Sr from Florida, Calijah Kancey from Pitt, Tyler Davis at Clemson and a personal favourite of mine who you’ll be hearing a lot about in the coming months…Keeanu Benton from Wisconsin.

A lot of decisions for the Jets to make, but the Jets have a hell of a lot of talent to work with.