Deep Dive: Jets Wide Receivers

Edition #138 - How are we set at receiver?

🌟 Good Morning!

Outside of Jennifer Lopez hopping on the Jets train (no really!), there really hasn’t been a lot to talk about in terms of Gang Green.

OTA’s are still ongoing, Zach looks great, the rookie looks great, and everyone should look great in that environment…well unless your name is Tua.

Today I thought I’d take a good look at the wide receiver group we have for 2022 and the outlook beyond this coming season.

Right now the Jets have 11 wide receivers on the roster and the chances are they are fighting for 7 roster spots. The Jets carried 7 receivers last year and I think the chances are high that we carry 7 receivers again.

So let us just dive straight into the roster and take a look at the players in question.

Corey Davis
Signed through: 2023
2021 Stats: 59 targets, 34 receptions, 492 yards, 4 TD, 6 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $13 million in 2022, $0 in 2023

Corey Davis is an interesting case, he was signed to be the main man in New York but struggled through injuries and drop issues on his way to a pedestrian stat line.

492 yards and 4 touchdowns aren’t awful, but when you combine that with 6 drops and a salary that paid him $12.6 million, the Jets didn’t get value for money.

Corey Davis was targeted deeper down the field in 2021 than at any other point in his career, his average depth of target was 13.3 yards, nearly a year more than his previous career-high in 2020 of 12.5.

Davis also had a down year in terms of contested catches, his 46.2% was poor by his standards and he really didn’t help rookie Zach Wilson. 5 of Wilson’s interceptions were thrown when targeting Davis.

This all sounds a little negative, but I’m a huge believer in Corey Davis, and here’s why.

His 2021 season was a little bit of an aberration and there’s no reason to presume that he won’t return to his career norm. Year two in the MLF system also helps.

Davis’s drop % in 2021 was 15.0%, that’s absolutely huge. But his career average is 7.3% and his percentage in 2020 was 5.8%. Some of it could be down to the system, learning to play with a new QB, and having his season interrupted by injuries.

His 46.2% contested catch rate was considerably lower than the 64.7% mark in 2020 and the 71.4% mark he achieved in 2019, so again, he has a longer history of success than he does failure to this point.

Corey won’t have to carry a huge portion of the load next season and that’s because of the next two guys on this list.

Elijah Moore
Signed through: 2024
2021 Stats: 74 targets, 43 receptions, 538 yards, 5 TD. 2 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $1,066,383 in 2022, $1,472,766 in 2023, $0 in 2024

Moore was on an outstanding pace in 2021, but injuries slowed down his progress. He appeared in 11 games but started just 6, but quickly became a favorite of Wilson.

Moore had 5 touchdowns over his final 5 games before a quad injury sidelined him from week 14 onwards.

Some people debate if he’s a slot receiver or better lined up outside, the truth is that his versatility is what makes him so valuable. In 2021 he spent 28.3% of his time in the slot and 70.8% out wide.

His 4.4% drop rate was outstanding for a rookie and once MLF worked out how to use him he was unstoppable at points, his 8 receptions for 141 yards and a touchdown against Miami was by far his best performance of the season.

There is no reason to expect him to experience prolonged injury issues, and with more talent at the position to take away coverage, he’s set for an outstanding year.

Moore had 204 yards after the catch last season and I’d expect to see that number jump this year.

Garrett Wilson
Signed through: 2025 + 5th-year option
2021 Stats: 102 targets, 70 receptions, 1,058 yards, 12 TD. 6 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $20.55 million spread over four years.

The Jets first-round pick and the 10th overall selection in the 2022 draft, Wilson will be coming into a talented receiver room.

There are a lot of mouths to feed in Ohio, but Wilson still got 102 targets, which led the Buckeyes over the likes of Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Wilson is an extremely proficient route-runner and his acceleration will get him open at any level, now he just needs to work on his chemistry with Zach Wilson.

There were 6 drops on tape at Ohio State but some of that comes from being a high-volume receiver, and I don’t think anyone would rank his hands below good to very good. He had the same # of drops as Corey Davis, but his drop percentage was actually only 7.9%, based on catchable targets.

Wilson spent 82.9% of his time outside in 2021, a year after spending 73.3% of the time in the slot. His move outside was due to the emergence of Smith-Njigba who is a guaranteed first-round pick next season.

Although he can work inside or out, 2021 was by far his most productive season and I expect to see him spend the majority of his time outside in NY.

One underrated aspect of his game is his ability to win contested catches, his success rate of 61.5% in 2022 was only slightly down on Drake London, who a lot of people fell in love with for being a contested-catch guy.

Braxton Berrios
Signed through: 2023
2021 Stats: 60 targets, 46 receptions, 431 yards, 2 TD. 1 drop.
Remaining guarantees: $1,035,000 in 2022, $500,000 in 2023

Someone who doesn’t need to work on their chemistry with QB Zach Wilson is Braxton Berrios, they’re basically tied together at the hip.

Berrios re-signed with the Jets this off-season and although he is a fine receiver in his own right, his value is extended by his ability in the return game.

Zach obviously is a big fan of Berrios and why shouldn’t he be, he was the rookie’s most reliable target with 1 drop on 60 targets. Reliability is an underappreciated skill in today’s game.

The fact the Jets claimed Berrios off waivers from the Patriots back in 2019 makes his success all the sweeter.

Berrios spent the majority of his time in the slot last season 74.2% and made a name for himself coming down with difficult balls in traffic catching 83.3% of his contested catches (5/6).

Berrios may not play as much this year as he did last year if Moore and Wilson can stay healthy, but he’ll still be a valuable weapon and get in when the Jets move to 4 wide sets.

Zach was only intercepted once when throwing to Berrios and he had an NFL passer rating of 100.1 when throwing to his best bud.

Denzel Mims
Signed through: 2023
2021 Stats: 19 targets, 8 receptions, 133 yards, 0 TD. 2 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $0

To say it hasn’t gone to plan for Denzel Mims would be an understatement. The former Baylor man followed up a promising rookie campaign with a dud.

He got food poisoning which caused his weight to plummet, rumors out of 1 Jets Drive indicated that he was struggling to pick up the playbook, and just when he was starting to see the field, he got COVID.

The best thing you can do in those situations is put that year down to bad luck and a learning experience and move forward.

So far Mims has done everything you’d want him to do. He went away and worked hard on the playbook, he’s come back into camp in phenomenal shape and is getting rave reviews across the board.

I understand the reluctance to get excited about Mims, but I’m staying positive on him. He has the speed and size to make plays for this team and even if he only hits 50% of his potential, he’ll still be one of the best WR5’s in the league.

This is a big off-season for Mims, he doesn’t have any guarantees left on his contract and if he doesn’t look the part I have no doubt that JD will try to trade him and failing that release him, there are no passengers with this set-up, best players gonna play.

I firmly believe Mims is going to be one of our best 7 receivers. He needs to make sure that he hangs on to the opportunities that come his way, a 20% drop rate in 2021 is not ideal. He was also built up as this crazy contested catcher, but that’s more on fans and media as he was never a huge contested catch guy in college, although he was better than the 26.7% guy he’s been in the pros.

Jeff Smith
Signed through: 2022
2021 Stats: 16 targets, 8 receptions, 113 yards, 0 TD. 2 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $0

Smith’s receiving line from 2021 is eerily similar to that of Mims, which isn’t great for the former 2nd-round pick.

When you get down to receivers 5/6/7, you need to have special teams on your mind and Smith isn’t a bad special teams player and got plenty of exposure on that unit in 2021.

Saying that you’re also looking for some upside and I’m not sure what upside Smith provides on the offensive side of the football.

He had a 20% drop rate, his contested catch rate is sub 40% and he doesn’t make people miss and get extra yards.

Smith will be entering his 4th year in the league now and really hasn’t shown a great deal as an offensive weapon. They say that roster churn at the bottom of the 53 is a good thing and Smith’s place is likely up for grabs this off-season.

Tariq Black
Signed through: 2023
2021 Stats: 2 targets, 1 reception, 10 yards, 0 TD. 1 drop.
Remaining guarantees: $0

Black started the 2021 season with the Colts but was signed to the Jets practice squad in December.

As a Texas Longhorns fan, I got the opportunity to see Black in college and although he’s got good size he’s always flattered to deceive.

He also didn’t really play any special teams in 2021, he had 4 snaps on kick coverage for the Jets when he was active but because he spent so little time on the active roster there’s not a lot to say about Black.

I’d be surprised if he made the team barring something crazy happening in camp.

Rodney Adams
Signed through: 2023
2021 Stats: 1 targets, 0 reception, 0 yards, 0 TD. 1 drop.
Remaining guarantees: $0

If a 50% drop rate is bad for a receiver, a 100% drop rate is worse. Adams appeared in one game for Chicago in 2021 and he dropped the only pass that came his way in week 13.

Adnams has bounced around the league since being taken in the 5th round by the Minnesota Vikings out of South Florida in 2017.

The fact that he’s been in the league since 2017 and only made his first appearance in 2021 as a 27-year-old probably says everything in relation to his chances of making the Jets roster in 2022.

Irvin Charles
Signed through: 2024
2021 Stats: 39 catches, 792 yards, 12 touchdowns
Remaining guarantees: $0

Irvin Charles is one of the more interesting prospects for the Jets this off-season, a former Penn State receiver, the IUP man stole the show at rookie mini-camp following a strong 2021 season.

It’s hard to judge Charles and he should have been better than all the guys he was going against, and he was. But as a big-bodied receiver who goes up and gets the football and offers the Jets a red-zone target from the wide receiver group.

I still think Denzel Mims has that inside track for the 5th wide receiver role, but Charles is a high effort and high upside guy who should be looking to secure one of those two open slots.

Keshunn Abram
Signed through: 2024
2021 Stats: 72 targets, 46 receptions, 684 yards, 3 TD, 4 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $70,000 in 2022

Abram played his first two years of eligibility at Northwest Mississippi Community College before transferring to Kent State and had a quiet career until a breakout 2021 campaign.

I was watching the game against the then ranked #1 Iowa Hawkeyes and Abram absolutely dominated that contest on the way to 6 receptions for 138 yards and a touchdown. He also had a 7-catch, 138-yard, and TD performance against Miami.

Abram’s 40 was only average but his explosion grades were excellent, he has that burst and acceleration that teams love and it’s interesting to see that the Jets gave him some guaranteed money, even if it is only $70,000. That tells me that there were other teams interested and the Jets needed a kicker to get the deal done.

Calvin Jackon
Signed through: 2024
2021 Stats: 98 targets, 66 receptions, 978 yards, 7 TD, 4 drops.
Remaining guarantees: $0

Calvin Jackson had a productive final season in 2021 with the Washington State Cougars, and considering he had 129 yards between 2019 and 2020, going pro on the back of a 978-yard season was probably the best idea.

Jackson spent 96.7% of his time in the slot last year and that extra space gave him the opportunity for more clean releases. He has reliable hands with his 5.7% drop rate being an exceptional rate for a high volume receiver.

Yards after the catch is a key statistic and Jackson’s 390 yards in 2021 is noteworthy. Just like Charles and Abram, Jackson has to fancy his chances of securing one of those bottom of the roster spots.

Measurables

Let’s just take a quick look at how the receivers stack up against each other. RAS is their relative athletic score and it’s a composite of all their measurables and all their testing scores.

Conclusion

The Jets are absolutely loaded at the position for 2022, as long as Corey Davis returns to form and Denzel Mims at least makes some improvement.

2023 is where things get interesting as only Elijah Moore and Garrett Wilson are guaranteed to be on the roster. The Jets could cut both Corey Davis and Braxton Berrios without losing much and most of the other receivers have no guaranteed money past 2022.

The hope is that Denzel Mims improves to an extent where he can be the replacement for Corey Davis and the Jets can save significant cap by moving on. If not Denzel Mims then hopefully someone else.

If none of those things happen, the Jets will need to continue to address the wide receiver position next off-season. But this is a positive site where we think positively.

So here’s my final 7 who I believe will make the roster:

Corey David, Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, Braxton Berrios, Denzel Mims, Irvin Charles, and Keshunn Abram.