Could Sauce win DROTY?

Edition #179

Good morning.

The rookies are heading to NY today with reporting scheduled for first thing tomorrow. The veterans will join them a week tomorrow and then it’s time to close our eyes, cross our fingers, and hope we escape training camp with a lot of work in the bag and no injuries, with the last point being the most important.

As has been the case over the last few weeks, there isn’t a lot to talk about in relation to the Jets. Thankfully that’s about to change, but today I wanted to touch on Sauce Garder and his potential for winning the Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year.

Every day I log onto Twitter to check out what’s being said about the Jets, and every day I see at least one person predict that Sauce Gardner will go on to win the marquee award of Associated Press Defensive Player of the Year. So I thought I’d take a look at what he’d have to do to earn that award.

Obviously, the first thing he’ll need to do is start. We all expect that Sauce will start, it’s not often a #4 overall pick will ride the pine, but Coach Saleh was very adamant back in OTA’s that he’d need to earn it, and as of today he’s #3 on the depth chart behind D.J Reed and Bryce Hall saying:

“I do want to be clear, and I know, like you just said, fourth overall and I’m not trying to stir up headlines, it probably will, he still has to go earn it,” Saleh said at a press conference. “Bryce has started, he’s taking the one reps and it’s not for show. You have to earn your right to play football. Just because you were drafted in a certain spot it doesn’t mean anything.”

He was taking starting reps with the defense during OTA’s but that was due to Reed missing some time. So while I fully expect him to start outside with Reed when we kick off our season against Baltimore in week one, he will need to earn that spot at training camp over the next month or so.

The next thing I wanted to understand was how often cornerbacks win the award, these awards sometimes have a certain tendency to be awarded to certain positions. You look at awards like the MVP and chances are it’s going to a QB, Adrian Peterson was the last non-QB to win that award, and that was all the way back in 2012.

The AP DROTY award has been handed out every year since 1967 with Detroit Lions cornerback Lem Barney being the first recipient. There have been 55 winners in total with Atlanta Falcons linebacking duo Buddy Curry and Al Richardson sharing the award in 1980. Of those 55 winners, 8 have been cornerbacks (14.5%).

If you compare that against the 26 linebackers who have won it (47.2%) and 12 defensive ends (21.8%) you’ll notice that it’s relatively hard for a cornerback to win the award. You do have to appreciate that the game has changed significantly over the years and corners have taken on a bigger role in a passing league, but even recent history would indicate it’s tough to take home that award.

Since the year 2000, only 2 cornerbacks have won the award, Marshon Lattimore in 2017 and Marcus Peters in 2010. Whereas over that same time frame 13 linebackers have won the award and 7 defensive linemen have too. So straight off the bat, just looking at the statistics I don’t feel overly confident about Sauce winning that award this year, it’s hard for a rookie to come in and dominate at corner the way some linebackers and defensive linemen do.

But, it’s not impossible.

So what did Lattimore and Peters do in their first year of play in the league to earn the award? Here are the stat lines for both players:

Marcus Peters - 2015 Season

16 games played
60 tackles
8 interceptions
26 pass deflections
1 forced fumble
2 touchdowns
2 tackles for a loss

Chiefs made the playoffs with an 11-5 record but lost in the divisional round to the Patriots 20-27. The Chiefs allowed just 17.9 points per game that season which was the 2nd best mark in the league.

Marshon Lattimore - 2017 Season

13 games played
52 tackles
5 interceptions
18 pass deflections
1 forced fumble
1 touchdown
1 tackle for a loss.

The Saints made the playoffs with an 11-5 record but lost in the divisional round to the Minnesota Vikings 24-29.

I don’t think I appreciated how good Marcus Peters was in his first year out of Washington, 26 pass deflections and 8 interceptions are absolutely insane. Those are career highs for him, so his best year statistically was his rookie year, again that doesn’t happen very often. Peters got 45 of the 50 available votes that year, so it wasn’t even close.

Lattimore also had an outstanding year in terms of interceptions and pass deflections and like Peters he won 45 of the 50 available votes, beating out Tre’Davious White (4) and Reuben Foster (1). Considering he only played 13 games, his numbers aren’t too far behind those of Peters, two very dominant seasons.

Obviously, you can’t get beaten like a drum and get by solely on interceptions, although maybe don’t mention that to Trevon Diggs and the Dallas Cowboys faithful. Although PFF did attribute 8 touchdowns and over 1000 yards to Marcus Peters during his rookie campaign of 2015, whereas Lattimore didn’t allow a touchdown and was only credited with allowing 583 yards.

So when I look at what Sauce will need to do to take home that award, he obviously needs to be better than all other defensive players, which is tough enough as it is considering the first five picks in the draft were all on the defensive side of the ball. But he’ll also need to come down with plenty of interceptions, those are the splash plays for the position that stays in the mind of voters, it’s the sack equivalent for the secondary…although if you can get some sacks as well even better.

Sauce has had 3 interceptions each year in college, and I doubt three interceptions will be enough, even if he allows few touchdowns and is in the top 10 in terms of yards allowed, voters like splash plays, we see it all the time and he’s going to be competing with a lot of defensive ends who are likely to make some splash plays.

If Sauce can have a 5 interception season while locking down one side of the field, he’s got a great shot. If someone like Aidan Hutchinson or Kayvon Thibodeaux (or Jermaine Johnson) puts up 10+ sacks then say goodnight.

If I had to pick one Jets rookie who could potentially win the award I probably would go with Sauce, but I wouldn’t be betting the bank on him becoming the 5th Jet to win the award after Erik McMillan (1988), Hugh Douglas (1995), Jonathan Vilma (2004) and Sheldon Richardson (2013)…and it doesn’t have a lot to do with Sauce, but more voter preference.