Buffalo Bills Preview

Edition #720

Good morning.

At one point I didn’t think I’d be getting a newsletter out today as my laptop (which is relatively new) decided to not turn on this morning, obviously I wasn’t the only one craving a lie-in.

With one game to go in week six, the NFL standings are starting to take shape. By some minor miracle the Jets will be playing for a share of first place in the AFC East tonight when they welcome Buffalo to MetLife. The Patriots were the only team to play yesterday and despite turning to their rookie QB Drake Maye, they were still easily handled by the impressive Houston Texans (5-1).

I actually thought Drake Maye looked pretty good in his debut completing 20/33 passes for 243 yards, 3 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. But he looked like a rookie as you’d expect. The Jets will visit Foxborough in a couple of weeks and it’ll be interesting to see how he’s developed over that time.

All we need to worry about today is Buffalo. We’ve got a new head coach, a new offensive play-caller and dare I say new energy? Buffalo are on a two game losing streak having been blown out by Baltimore and taken down by Houston, but they’re a lot better than I thought they’d be.

• A report surfaced on ESPN over the weekend that while the Raiders continue to talk to the Jets and other teams about a potential Davante Adams trade, it’s no longer a lock that he’ll be traded. I think it’s pretty clear that the story came from the Raiders who are struggling to get anyone to match their valuation of a second round pick.

• Rich Cimini shared the list of offensive coordinators the Jets have had since 2012 and it’s little wonder that we’ve rarely seem a potent offense - Tony Sparano, Marty Mornhinweg, Chan Gailey, John Morton, Jeremy Bates, Dowell Loggains, Mike LaFleur, Hackett and Downing. Downing isn’t technically the OC, but as play-caller I think its fare to include him.

• Sauce Gardner had this to say about Jeff Ulbrich - "I was talking to him before practice. I was just telling him, 'Man, the way you're taking this on, you inspire me. You motivate me.' It was a sudden change, and he was prepared for it.”

• Todd Downing will look to get the run game going against Buffalo tonight and that will be bolstered by the return of Morgan Moses at RT. I’m sure the Bills will be aware that the Jets will want to run the ball, which is why Downing needs to be unpredictable with his play calling. Breece Hall is better than his 3.0 average indicates and the Jets will have their season ruined if they keep asking Rodgers to throw the ball 50 times a game.

• Bills HC Sean McDermott has been talking about Aaron - "We all know he is a Hall of Famer, A really good player, incredibly smart and gifted. He does a great job running their offense. There is more than the challenge with him of him just being an elite thrower, it's the mobility, the mental part of the game and I just have so much respect for his game and the things he has been able to do over the years and how he has done. He is as good as there is."

• Bills starting QB Josh Allen was asked about the Jets defense - "They play really hardnosed football, Their front is very talented and the have a lot of talent on the back end as well. They have a great linebacker duo. They are a tough defense to play against. Number one will be establishing the run and try and commit to that. Then being smart with where the football is going and how quickly we are getting it out of our hands."

• The Jets will be without Michael Carter II tonight and new addition Isaiah Oliver will take over that nickel spot - "For me to go up to Isaiah in that circumstance and say can you play nickel – 'yes'," Ulbrich said of his pregame conversation with Oliver, who tallied 6 tackles and a sack vs. the Vikings. "What calls are your comfortable with – 'all of them'. And then we go in the locker room, and I hand him the call sheet and he looks at it front and back and he's like, 'call it all'. To have a player like that from a coaching perspective, it just brings you so much security and he's an invaluable piece to what we're trying to get accomplished here."

• Sauce Gardner believes that the Bills are using Shakir in a similar way to how they used Diggs over the last few years - "They have been using Shakir like Diggs in terms of the gadget-type plays, Diggs could run routes like a true X receiver and he would play out of the slot. Shakir has been doing a little bit of that, but he is mainly a gadget guy that is playing out of the slot. Coleman, Josh likes leaning on him as well. They have got a lot of good guys."

• Jeff Ulbrich understands the need for speed on the defensive line when playing Josh Allen - "When you play against Josh Allen, you need speed on the defensive line to chase this guy down, As we all know, he's a problem with his arm, but he's just as much a problem with his legs. So, you have to have guys who can (hunt) him down. Will is one of those human beings. His progress as a player, you guys have all seen that, the pass rush and how he's affected games in that way is taken to another place especially this year. But what you guys don't see is the approach. He has become a pro in front of our eyes, the way he practices, the way he meets, the way he takes notes. Here's a guy who struggled to keep (his weight in the) high 220s, high 230s and he's in the high 240s now."

I really didn’t expect to be playing for first place in week six with a new Head Coach. Those two things don’t tend to happen at the same time.

Jeff Ulbrich will take charge for the first time tonight. Not a lot will change on the defensive side of the ball. Ulbrich will still call plays as he has been doing all season, and the Jets are likely to have defensive captain C.J. Mosley back. Although with how well Jamien Sherwood has been playing, it’ll be interesting to see how Ulbrich handles that.

Offensively the Jets are broken. We can’t run the football because we can’t block up-front. Aaron Rodgers is missing throws that he’d make in his sleep and the balance of the attack is completely off. An Aaron Rodgers led offence should be not be ranking No. 27 in total yards (286.6/game) and No. 32 in rushing (80.4 yards/game). The blocking concepts need work as the Jets are simply losing their one-v-ones. Over the first five weeks the Jets have faced a stacked box just 14.2% of the time, which is 28th. In principle the running game should be feasting, but that’s not happening.

Those stats are a little misleading as the Buffalo offence has really cooled down. Through the first three weeks of the season Buffalo scored 34, 31, and 47 points against the Cardinals, Dolphins and Jaguars. Having seen the Jags up close and personal in London yesterday, I think any half decent offence is going to put 30+ points up on them this season.

Over the last two weeks the quality of opponent has improved and Buffalo scored 10 against Baltimore and 20 against Houston. There are a lot of issues with the Jets but the defense isn’t one of them. If the Bills get into the red-zone they tend to score, but getting to the red-zone as been an issue over the last two weeks and that starts with their inability to convert on third down. Over the last two weeks they are just 6/27 on third down, which is 22.2%..only Cleveland have been worse.

Josh Allen is only completing 60% of his passes but he’s yet to throw a interception which is why the Bills are joint first in giveaways per game. James Cook is having a good year on the ground and that’s something the Jets will need to deal with. He was limited in practice on Saturday and he’s listed as questionable, but he’s expected to play. Through five games he has over 300 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns, and of course Josh Allen is always a rushing threat.

With no Stefon Diggs this season the ball has been spread around more. 6 different Bills have touchdown receptions but only Shakir (2) and Coleman (2) have more than one touchdown, but it’s TE Dalton Kincaid that leads the team in targets (24) and it always makes me nervous as a Jets fan when the opposing team has a heavy dose of TE targets. For as long as I’ve been a fan we’ve struggled to defend TEs.

Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury and outside of a limited practice on Saturday he really hasn’t done a lot. So he’s a very big question mark heading into the game against the #1 passing defense in the NFL.

Let’s flip to the other side of the ball and check out the defense:

We had some issues at the start of the season defending the run, but we’ve managed to improve that and with Leki Fotu on his way back, that should only improve. We still have a top 10 defense in some key categories like points allowed, and red-zone scoring % allowed. We have a top 5 defense in third down conversion % allowed, and we also possess the #1 passing defense in football. We can quibble with the Jets not getting some key stops here and there, but at the end of the day when as a unit you’re allowing on average 17 points per game, you’re doing your job.

Is it perfect? Absolutely not. We still need to clean up our tackling and while Quinnen Williams is getting doubled at the 6th highest rate among interior lineman in football, we need to get him going a little or other people need to step up. But this is a good unit and while there won’t be a shift in play-caller with Ulbrich, losing Saleh could impact the performance and that’s something we need to watch going forward.

Buffalo are middle of the pack across the board, but there are two areas to exploit looking at the numbers. Like their offence, their defence is struggling to get off the field on third down. And if there was ever a game to get the run-game going, it’s this one.

Ed Oliver will be missing for Buffalo with a hamstring injury and fellow defensive tackle Austin Johnson is also questionable. Giving the Jets more opportunities to right the wrongs with the run game. AVT and Tippmann have been plus points on the interior but John Simpson needs to drastically improve if he wants to keep his place.

As mentioned at the top, only the Patriots were in action this weekend and they lost their 5th game in a row. It’s going to take a big effort for them not to finish at the bottom of the pack. The Dolphins were on a bye week and there is still no timetable for Tua to return and without Tua they’re a poor team, I’m not sure they’re that much better with Tua but there you go. The Jets can head to the top of the East tonight with a win over Buffalo.