Banishing the Ghosts of Patriots Past

Edition #265

Good morning.

Whenever I’m asked who I believe to be the Jet’s biggest rivals, I always answer the Miami Dolphins without hesitation. When I’m asked who as a Jets fan I least like to play, I say the New England Patriots, without hesitation. There’s just something about them.

We haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2015, a 26-20 victory in overtime. One of the best things about the 2022 Jets is that they’re not carrying the weight of previous teams’ failure, they’ve made several comments to that effect. But one thing is for sure, Zach will need to banish those ghosts of Patriots past.

Elijah Moore spoke to the media yesterday about his switch to the slot: "I feel good about it. I'm attacking it. It's another opportunity, another way to show my talents. All I want to do is win."

Former Jets and Vikings TE Chris Herndon - who is currently a free agent - has been suspended for the 8 remaining weeks of the 2022 NFL regular season according to Field Yates. I haven’t seen a reason given.

Robert Saleh said that Corey Davis has a chance to play on Sunday against the Patriots, but in the portion of practice open to the media, Corey was nowhere to be seen. This is going to be one to watch over the next 48 hours.

Nate Herbig was also absent from practice yesterday but Saleh didn’t seem overly concerned that he was in danger of missing the game on Sunday.

Laurent Duvernay-Tardif who played for the Jets in 2021 was working out for the team yesterday and is likely going to find his way onto the practice squad.

What do the Jets have in Zach Wilson? That to me is still one of the biggest questions we have as a franchise. The expectation was that by the end of the 2022 season, we’d have our answer, but as the team has won with limited production from the QB spot, that question may remain unanswered as we head into the off-season.

Robert Saleh has doubled down on his support of Zach recently which is exactly what you want from your head coach. Yesterday he said, "From a narrative standpoint, to try to attack the young man for 4 or 5 plays -- 4 or 5 teachable moments -- I just think we're missing the big picture." - “Attack” is a strong word and I think that’s just coach Saleh going into protection mode, for me, it’s not about 4 or 5 plays, it’s the fact that 19 games through his career he’s completing 56.2% of his passes with 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

I’m willing to finish this season with the QB question unanswered if it means we get some playoff football. It’s been over a decade since we’ve seen meaningful football in January, and I’m ready for that to change. To do that, I can’t help but feel we need to limit what we ask Zach to do. There are those that believe he’s the answer, there are those that believe he’s the worst QB to ever play for the Jets, and then like me, there are those who still have absolutely no idea.

In the two full games that Zach has played against New England, he’s thrown 2 touchdowns to 7 interceptions and has completed 53% of his passes for an NFL passer rating of 50.8. We all know that Bill has a reputation for making the lives of young QBs hell, but there is something about the Patriots that seems to force Zach into making bad decisions.

The game plan for the Jets on offense right now is a pretty simple one. Establish the ground game and use it often, and then use Zach on quick-hitting one-read short throws with an occasional long one mixed in to keep the defense honest. There is going to be a time where we’ll need to open up the playbook a little and ask more of Zach, but I just don’t feel that time is this weekend.

The Patriot’s defense flat-out dominated Indianapolis in week 9 allowing just 121 total yards, in fact, they dominated them so much the Colts fired their head coach one day after. Interestingly enough, there’s only one team who has thrown for over 300 yards against the Patriots and that’s the Jets, but when that comes with 3 picks then the yardage isn’t worth it.

In four of their nine games so far this season, the Patriots have allowed 100+ yards on the ground and in three of those four they’ve allowed 175+ rushing yards. The Bears ran all over them to the tune of 243 yards. The Jets only had 51 yards against New England at Metlife, the lowest total of the season allowed by New England. You feel that if we’re to win this weekend, those numbers will need to switch.

I saw a few comments on yesterday’s piece around the defensive ends and their ability against the run, so I thought I’d pop a quick update here on the PFF numbers. I’ve been largely against using PFF and their grading system because I find it illogical at points, but this does largely match the eye test. So here are the Jet’s defensive ends and their run defense grades:

Jermaine Johnson - 72.0 (56 snaps)
Micheal Clemons - 83.1 (72 snaps)
John Franklin-Myers - 73.1 (130 snaps)
Bryce Huff - 60.0 (2 snaps)
Carl Lawson - 46.8 (118 snaps)
Vinny Curry 54.8 (42 snaps)

There’s one other stat that is always helpful and that’s stop %, which is basically just outlines “The percentage of a player's run defense snaps where he was responsible for a stop”, Here’s how they shape up:

Jermaine Johnson - 12.7%
Vinny Curry - 9.8%
Micheal Clemons - 7.1%
John Franklin-Myers - 6.3%
Carl Lawson - 3.5%
Bryce Huff - 0.0%

I think it’s clear that Jermaine Johnson is the best edge defender in terms of his run-stuffing ability. He also hasn’t missed a single tackle in the run game.