Good morning,
From tomorrow onwards we’ll officially be able to say that the draft is “this month”, draft season drags and we’re into the silly portion of the event.
You’re going to hear a ton of rumors over the next 4 weeks, believe as many as you like…but in my experience, comments usually get “leaked” for a reason and it’s not because they’re true.
Safety
Are the Jets completely out of the safety draft market?
That was a question posed to me on a group chat recently and it got me thinking about the makeup of the Jet’s safety room.
As of today, the Jets have 8 safeties signed to the roster ahead of OTA’s, but how many are truly NFL caliber, and then how many of those guys can be relied upon?
Ashtyn Davis (FS)
Lamarcus Joyner (FS)
Kai Nacua (FS)
Jordan Whitehead (SS)
Jason Pinnock (SS)
Jovante Moffatt (SS)
Will Parks (SS)
Elijah Riley (SS)
Here’s the current setup of the safety room with the perceived starters bolded. A lot of names but very little proven NFL talent. Outside of Whitehead, we have question after question after question.
How will Lamarcus Joyner look after missing a year through injury? Remember he spent the last two years in Las Vegas as a slot cornerback before signing with the Jets as a free safety. He now hasn’t played that position in 3 years, but two of his best years came as a free safety in LA, so the expectation is he can pick right up from there.
Jason Pinnock will be going into his first camp as a safety, Ashtyn Davis has been largely underwhelming with his read and react skills and his tackling angles and everyone else is fighting just to stay on the roster.
In short, the Jets don’t have a complete safety room. I have more confidence in Elijah Riley as the backup to Jordan Whitehead at strong safety than I do Ashtyn Davis backing up Joyner at free safety.
When throwing into the coverage zone of Ashtyn Davis, QBs have a 131 passer rating, completing 75.5% of their passes for 6 touchdowns against 2 interceptions. His missed tackle rate jumped from 2.7% in 2020 to 12.9% in 2021. Last year he gave up 220 yards after the catch, and in short I’m just not a huge believer.
Whitehead, Riley, and Pinnock are good enough to handle the strong safety position, I think we’re covered there. But would we be in the market for a free safety if the value was there? Absolutely.
Here are five free safeties that could interest the Jets in the 2022 NFL Draft.
Kyle Hamilton - First Round - Notre Dame
Chances are the Jets won’t be in the market for Hamilton, even if he drops to the 10th overall pick. I’m just not sure they see the value in taking a safety that high.
However, Joe Douglas has spoken recently about his free agency additions opening up the possibility of drafting the best player available. If Hamilton drops to #10, he would almost certainly be the best player available.
Hamilton comes down and plays the run better than most safeties, but he has the speed and range to play the deep half of the field. He has the versatility to play multiple positions which Saleh will love and the instincts to be a leader.
I love Hamilton, I’m just not sure if the Jets will love him enough to spend a first-round pick on him.
Jaquan Brisker - Second Round - Penn State
As soon as we get out of the first round, I think that’s where safeties come into play for the Jets.
Brisker projects as a free safety at the next level with his ability to play both the run and pass. He has the speed that teams look for with their deep half safeties and he also plays with the instincts that you expect from the last line of defense.
Brisker put up some of the best coverage stats among safeties in 2021, allowing just a 57.1% completion into his coverage while recording 2 interceptions against 1 touchdown allowed.
Although I see him as a free safety, he has all the versatility in the world. He spent considerable time at FS, SS, and as a slot corner in 2021. He showed leadership and improvement and his ceiling is a pro bowler in the NFL.
Other option: Lewis Cine (Georgia)
Kerby Joseph - Third Round - Illinois
Here’s my favorite option for the Jets in the entire draft at safety.
Joseph had an outstanding season in 2021 allowing just 47.4% into his coverage while recording 5 interceptions and 4 pass break-ups. He offers that momentum-shifting turnover potential that the Jets didn’t have last season.
Kerby followed up his 2021 season with a dominant display at the senior bowl. He’s got good size and length, + acceleration and long speed that make him an enticing prospect for the modern NFL.
A lot of safeties have missed tackle rates above 10%, but Joseph comes in just below that at 9.5%, making him largely a reliable tackler.
Outside of the obvious physical talent, Joseph showcases that awareness and football IQ that is hard to measure, but you know it when you see it.
Verone McKinley III - Fourth Round - Oregon
In scouting circles there are certain prospects where they say you need to “trust the tape”, and McKinley III is one of those.
McKinley won’t tick many boxes when it comes to his size, he stands 5’10 and 198lbs, according to RAS which gives him a “poor” grade in terms of measurables.
But flip on the tape and you’ll see a playmaker who showcases elite instincts and outstanding read and react potential.
Over the course of the 2021 season, McKinley was targeted 29 times, allowing 17 receptions for a completion of 58.6%. He was beaten twice for touchdowns but he also came down with 6 interceptions and 4 pass break-ups.
His 18.5% missed tackle rate is concerning and he’s very much a free safety who likely won’t see a ton of action at the line, but there is so much to like about McKinley at this draft spot.
Yusuf Corker - Fifth Round - Kentucky
Corker is flying a little under the radar this draft season, but he showcased his strength by putting 23 up on the bench.
Corker allowed just a single touchdown into his coverage in 2021 while recording 6 pass break-ups. He was targeted 40 times but allowed just 20 completions for a 50% completion rate.
He’s another player who has that positional versatility having spent time in the box, as a free safety, and as a slot corner. He didn’t have a single interception which is a little concerning but he’s your classic reliable deep safety.
Corker isn’t my favorite prospect in this draft but he’s the kind of guy who will end up playing in the league for a long time, but probably never reach the heights of a pro bowl or all-pro selection.
I would love for them to draft Brisker, but I'm not sure they'll be looking at safety at the top of round 2.