10 Draft Thoughts + Deebo Drama
I'm ready for this to come back and bite me.
☀️ Good morning
One week today we’ll have two new Jets players (barring any trades), and we’ll finally be able to move forward with previewing the 2022 season.
Today I’m going to go through some things I think I think, but with draft prospects, it often changes by the day.
🚨 Sam Monson of PFF released his latest mock draft yesterday and he had the Jets selecting Sauce Gardner at #4 after Hutchinson, Thibodeaux, and Walker went 1,2, and 3. He then had the Jets taking wide receiver Jameson Williams out of Alabama.
✍️ The Jets signed all of their exclusive-rights free agents to contracts on Tuesday, cornerback Javelin Guidry, safety Elijah Riley, wide receiver Jeff Smith, and defensive lineman Tim Ward will all return to camp with the Jets.
✍️ The Jets also announced they'd resigned Vinny Curry. The DE missed the 2021 season due to complications from a rare blood disorder that required his spleen to be removed.
✈️ Visit Tracker
New players added to the list are bolded.
💨 🌉 ➡️ 🗽 Deebo Drama
Here I was enjoying not having to talk about wide receiver speculation, and then Jeff Darlington just drops a bombshell. (Although apparently, this trade request came in last week)
Why does Deebo want out?
Nobody really knows for sure but Ian Rapoport stated it wasn't money-related, at least it's not all about the money. Rumor is Deebo doesn't want to be used as a rusher as much as he was in 2021, he wants to be used mainly as a receiver to protect his longevity. Deebo also posted a message last week stating he was getting racist slurs and death threats from 49ers fans around his contract negotiations, that would be enough to sour me on staying.
Will the 49ers trade him?
Kyle Shanahan said that every player has his price last year and John Lynch strikes me as the kind of GM who wants players to want to be in San Fran, If Deebo wants out then the 49ers likely end up trading him to the highest bidder. I can't see San Francisco giving Deebo much choice in the matter, but any team trading for him will want to guarantee that Deebo will sign an extension with the team.
Will the Jets be interested?
This seems an obvious one. Jets have been in on nearly every high caliber receiver this year and there are a lot of 49er connections in New York. The Jets will be a main player here.
What will it take to get him?
That's an interesting question. If the Jets are looking to take a receiver at #10 and Lynch said he'd take that for Deebo I'd be tempted. He's not going to come cheap considering the season he had and his age.
How good is Deebo?
He's a multi-dimensional weapon and an outstanding receiver in his own right, but if he wants to limit his carries to just 1-2 a game that's going to hurt his value.
His rushing stats look pretty impressive from last season with 8 touchdowns and a 6.2 yards per carry number.
But if you take a look at his receiving stats before San Francisco started using him as a rusher, you'll see how valuable he is as an out and out receiver, including 4 games of over 100 receiving yards.
If you discount his rushing ability, he still finished the 2021 season with 1,405 receiving yards and 6 touchdowns. His 18.2 yards per reception were the highest mark in the NFL for receivers who had at least 40 targets. But with the positives come some negatives, Deebo also had the highest # of drops of any receiver who had 40 targets (12) which was the 6th highest drop % among receivers with 40 targets.
Deebo did catch 57.1% of his deep targets, which ranked 7th best in the league for receivers who had at least 10 targets, and he didn’t drop a single deep pass which seems to play into the strengths of Zach Wilson.
One question I wanted to answer was how much of Deebo’s success came on screen passes, 250 of his yards came courtesy of screens which was the 2nd highest mark in the league behind Chris Godwin. It’s not a negative or a bad thing, but it helps understand how he was used.
Over 1000 of Deebo’s yards came against man coverage with just 212 yards coming when he faced man coverage.
🧐 Draft Thoughts/Predictions - Part 1
Here are 10 thoughts/predictions on the 2022 NFL Draft class. I’m ready for this to come back and bite me in the backside in 1-3 years.
Zach Tom is going to be one of the best linemen from this draft class. Whether he plays tackle or center, his technical ability and a firm understanding of leverage paired with his hand usage will make him a steal. Not that long ago he was looked at as a 5th round guy, I don’t think he lasts until the end of the 3rd. He allowed 12 pressures on 525 pass-blocking snaps at left tackle, that’s a pressure every 43 snaps, a great number.
Kayvon Thibodeaux will be the best pass-rusher in this class. His desire to be great will propel him and while I don’t think he’ll dominate in year one, I think he’s a 10+ sack player for a fair few years.
Cole Strange will start in year one and become of the most reliable centers in football with the ability to play guard. I hope that’s for the Jets but wherever he ends up he’s going to make a team look very smart for taking him. I also don’t think he’ll get out of the third round.
Nakobe Dean will be the best linebacker from this class and be a perennial pro-bowler. He’ll also be one of the best pass-rushing linebackers to come from this class.
Spencer Burford is going to be that late-round guard who becomes a consistent performer and top 20 player at the position, the kind of guy you look at in 10 years and say “How was he not taken before the 4th round”.
Tyler Linderbaum will be just as good as advertised and will head to the pro-bowl in year one. He’ll end up as the best player to come from the draft and will make several All-Pro appearances before his career is done.
Chris Olave will be the most productive receiver in year one, as long as he’s drafted to a team with a semi-competent quarterback.
Kenny Pickett will be the best QB from the 2022 class, but this will be considered one of the poorer QB classes in recent memory.
There will be three star running backs from the 2022 class in Kenneth Walker, Breece Hall, and Tyler Allgeier.
When recovered from his injury John Metchie III will be a 1000+ yard receiver and the best yards after the catch receiver in this class. His 620 yards after the catch in 2021 was the 3rd best mark in college football and he’ll continue that in the NFL.
📸📸 Snapshot
🔗 NFL.com released a piece around draft prospects who may not go in the first round, but absolutely should. Here’s one such prospect: “I've been saying for months now that Skyy Moore is my favorite player in this year's draft. While other big-school wideouts are locks to go in Round 1 -- guys like Jameson Williams, Drake London, Garrett Wilson, and Chris Olave -- Moore was an under-the-radar prospect at the start of the pre-draft process. He can match any of those aforementioned guys in terms of pure production, playmaking, football intelligence, and skills. The versatile receiver has the talent and confidence to be a winning starter no matter where he is drafted”
🔗 In a refreshing change, LA Rams receiver Cooper Kupp has come out and said he’s not looking to reset the wide receiver market but instead find a deal that’s fair to both player and team: "I don't think that's really kind of the approach that I take," he said. "I definitely think there's a place you want to be. There's a place that you feel like is fair. A place for me and for this organization. ... I'm not trying to beat anybody. I'm not trying to compare myself to anyone else. It's more about being in a place that's just right for both sides."